War costs rise as analysts see next Iran strikes after midterms

U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran may resume after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to security experts who expect the next phase of the conflict to be more destructive than the previous two.

The current conflict began in June 2025 with American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. That engagement lasted 12 days and ended with a temporary ceasefire. Fighting restarted in February following a buildup of U.S. forces, with Israeli attacks targeting senior Iranian leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official now with the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that a renewed war seems inevitable. He expects the third round to target Gulf energy infrastructure and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Citrinowicz also warned that Iran might send ground troops into Kuwait and Bahrain to hit U.S. bases and damage the American economy.

Global energy markets are already feeling the strain. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran continues to attack commercial shipping. On Thursday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran was artificially inflating oil prices before the election. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that these vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington.

Iran is seeking sanctions relief, reparations, and the release of frozen assets. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have failed to restart talks. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah would likely retaliate by targeting economic hubs such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment said Trump lacks a clear goal and that military force alone will not force Iran to capitulate.

The human cost is mounting. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran and over 4,000 in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if President Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces voters in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form a unity government to stay in power. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy remains possible but requires Iran to face economic pressure alongside a clear diplomatic exit.