Poll: 66% of Shi'ites Back State Control of Arms

A September survey of 800 Lebanese Shi'ites indicates a shift in support for state control over Hezbollah's arsenal, with 66.4% favoring the transfer of weapons to the Lebanese state. The poll, conducted by Statistics Lebanon, suggests a departure from the militant group's traditional monopoly on security within its core constituency.

The survey results, reported by Israel's KAN and Kataeb.org, show that 71.1% of respondents believe decisions regarding war and peace should be made exclusively by the state. Only 5.9% supported a larger role for Hezbollah leadership in shaping national policy. Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces is strong, with 78.5% expressing trust in the military. When asked which institution is best positioned to guarantee long-term security, 51.1% selected the army, compared to 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

Despite the support for state authority, opinions on Hezbollah's performance are mixed. Approximately 67.4% of respondents indicated that the group failed to meet its objectives in the war with Israel or achieved only partial success. Furthermore, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership. However, a majority of 59.5% still report some level of trust in Hezbollah, including 37.1% who have a great deal of trust. Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's continued strength is sustained by its support networks and status within the sect, provided no other entity fills the void.

These findings contrast with earlier data. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, found that 87.5% of Shi'ites opposed disarming Hezbollah. Mizrahi and Levanoni, writing for the Institute for National Security Studies in June, argued that the group's influence relies on social and economic networks. They suggested that weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to allow the state to replace the services the group provides.

Local indicators also reflect wariness. In Tyre, property owners reportedly resisted the opening of an Al-Qard Al-Hassan branch, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, due to fears of Israeli strikes. In response to recent destruction, Hezbollah announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs, and up to $12,000 for those elsewhere whose primary homes were destroyed.

The group faces these polling results after suffering major leadership losses, including the death of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A conflict that began in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in southern Lebanese villages. The poll data provides a snapshot of current sentiment as the state and the militant group continue to define their respective roles in national security and reconstruction.