Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Tie at 50 Percent in Final Pre-Runoff Poll

The presidential race in Brazil is statistically even on the eve of the runoff. A survey by the Datafolha institute released on Thursday places President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 50 percent each. This result wipes out the four-point advantage Bolsonaro held in polls published two weeks prior. The final vote takes place on Sunday.

The numbers mark a sharp reversal for the former senator. Bolsonaro led the first round of voting on October 4 with 47 percent of the vote, while Lula received 45 percent. The new Datafolha figures suggest that the gap has closed entirely in the two days following the final campaign debate.

The two candidates met for their last televised debate on Friday in Rio de Janeiro. The event aired on TV Globo and focused on policy differences rather than personal history. Both men questioned each other on infrastructure, regional development, and the state of the national economy. The tone was more diplomatic than their first encounter on Sunday, though tension remained high.

Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, criticized the incumbent for leaving the country bankrupt. He argued that his plan to cut public spending would be similar to the approach taken by Argentina’s President Javier Milei. "I'll have the same job here because you're leaving the country bankrupt," Bolsonaro said. Lula countered by comparing Bolsonaro's spending cuts to a chainsaw. He accused the senator of lacking experience, stating, "He doesn't know Brazil."

Personal friction surfaced during the debate when Bolsonaro referred to Lula as "Nine Fingers," a nickname referencing a work accident in the president’s youth. Lula demanded an apology, which Bolsonaro provided. The exchange escalated when Lula called his rival a vigilante, citing alleged ties to paramilitary groups in Rio. Bolsonaro responded by labeling such groups "narcoterrorists."

Both candidates are scheduled to join supporters in the streets of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo for final rallies before the Sunday vote. The tight polling numbers indicate a highly competitive finish to the election.