Moore Spends Millions to Save Redistricting Measure Amid Voter Doubts
A new poll shows 53% of likely Maryland voters oppose the ballot question, prompting a heavy ad buy by the governor and his allies just before the Nov. 3 election.
By Kevin Iyer ·
Governor Wes Moore’s campaign shifted its advertising focus this week from his own re-election bid to a push for the passage of a controversial redistricting ballot measure. The change in strategy follows the release of a poll suggesting the measure faces stiff opposition from Maryland voters. The campaign now spends heavily on television and digital ads to secure a win on Question 3 by Nov. 3.
The ballot question would remove the state constitutional requirement that congressional districts follow natural boundaries such as the Chesapeake Bay. If passed, the change would allow state Democratic leaders to redraw the map in a way that favors their party. The current map favors Democrats in seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. A new map could potentially shift the balance further in their direction.
The push for redistricting gained momentum after a previous effort failed in 2022. A state judge struck down a 2021 map drawn by the Legislature. In response, Democrats sought a ballot measure to fix the legal issue that caused the map’s collapse. State Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, initially blocked a legislative push to redraw lines in 2024. He cited a lack of majority support in his chamber. He later worked to convene a special session in August to place the constitutional question before voters.
Public support for the measure appears weaker than expected. A poll released this month by the University of Maryland, Baltimore County found that 53% of likely voters plan to vote against the proposal. The opposition cuts across party lines. The survey found 42% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 59% of unaffiliated voters intend to vote no.
Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, noted that many voters question whether district lines should favor one party. She stated that the survey used plain language to avoid the legalese found on the ballot. She observed that some Democrats want to fight the Trump administration but hesitate to approve a redistricting effort that gains only one additional seat. She pointed out that a similar measure in California allowed Democrats to gain advantages in five seats, whereas Maryland’s effort would result in a smaller numerical gain.
Campaign spending has ramped up in response to the polling data. Fight Back MD, a group supporting the measure, spent $550,000 on TV ads in the current month. Moore’s campaign invested $700,000 in a video featuring state Democratic leaders urging a yes vote. On Monday, the campaign spent an additional $500,000 on an ad featuring former President Barack Obama supporting the measure. The ads aim to frame the vote as a necessary step to counter Republican efforts in other states.
Tensions remain within the state Democratic party. Ferguson, who helped place the question on the ballot, has not committed to redrawing maps in the 2025 legislative session if the measure passes. His absence from the public push has raised questions among donors. Ferguson’s communications director, David Schuhlein, said the Senate leader is primarily focused on retaining Democratic state Senate seats and gaining a few more districts. He described that effort as requiring immense focus from the leadership team.
Moore’s political future is intertwined with the outcome of the vote. Speculation about a 2028 presidential run has grown as Moore travels frequently out of state. In a debate this month against Republican opponent Dan Cox, Moore did not commit to serving a full second term. He stated that being governor has been the honor of a lifetime and that he would not be running for re-election if he was not committed to the people of Maryland. Republicans have accused him of seeking a 100% Democratic congressional delegation as a political trophy for a White House run.
Moore’s allies argue that a failure on the ballot measure will not hurt a future presidential bid. A national Democratic strategist said that voters in early primary states likely will not care about Maryland’s internal map dispute. They emphasized that Moore has a strong record on other issues. Conversely, Michael Hanmer, a professor at the University of Maryland, warned that opponents could use a loss as an example of Democratic weakness. He predicted that redistricting could become a wedge issue between 2028 candidates, particularly governors who share similar policy views on economics and foreign affairs. He noted that Moore is a skilled politician who will likely have a response if the issue is raised by rivals.
