Final poll shows opposition holding 56-seat lead over Netanyahu bloc
With polls closing at 8:00 p.m. Tuesday, Channel 12 data projects the opposition at 56 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at 50, leaving neither group with a standalone majority.
By Marco Kapoor ·
Polling stations in Israel closed at 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday as citizens completed the voting process for the Knesset. This election marks the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Exit polls are scheduled for release at 10:00 p.m., providing initial projections before the full count concludes in the coming days.
The final Channel 12 poll, published on Friday, places the opposition bloc at 56 seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is projected to win 50 seats. Neither group has reached the 61 seats required for a governing majority. The Arab parties are projected to capture a combined 16 seats, creating a pivotal balance of power in the new parliament.
Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is positioned to lead the opposition with 22 seats. This figure exceeds the projection for Netanyahu’s Likud party, which stands at 19 seats. B’Yachad, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, is projected to secure 14 seats. Likud’s seat count represents a drop from the 32 seats it holds in the current Knesset.
The Taub Center calculated that a party needs 165,635 votes to clear the 3.25% electoral threshold at a 70% turnout rate. This figure rises as voter participation increases. Small parties, including Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics, face a steep challenge to enter the legislature. Their success or failure will directly impact coalition building.
Central issues for voters include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis, the debate over haredi conscription, and the establishment of a state commission of inquiry regarding October 7. The opposition has argued that Netanyahu should face accountability for the attacks and step down from his role as prime minister. He has served in that capacity for 19 non-consecutive years.
Police deployed approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers across the country on Tuesday. These forces were stationed at polling stations and in surrounding areas to maintain public order. The police stated that the deployment aims to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process follows the law.
