Serbia's New Government Defers Foreign Policy Changes
Experts predict a focus on domestic institutional repairs before any major shifts in relations with Europe, Russia, or Israel.
By Kevin Iyer ·
The Student List victory ended fourteen years of Serbian Progressive Party rule.
International observers expect a slow transition in Belgrade's external strategy rather than an immediate pivot.
Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that regional relations are not yet on the agenda.
The new authorities must first address a system that has captured democratic institutions, according to Popov.
Specific domestic targets include the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector.
Popov described the current state as requiring tidying up at home before solving problems with neighbors.
Relations with Croatia remain marked by sharp words despite not being frozen.
Popov noted that the outgoing regime used nationalistic rhetoric to undermine ties with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo.
He identified Croatia as the most difficult case due to clashes between Serbian and Croatian nationalist-populist parties.
Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least of all Serbian policies.
Many structures shaping foreign policy will remain in place, he said.
Moscow viewed Aleksandar Vucic as a familiar figure, according to Vuksanovic's analysis of Russian sentiment during the Vucic era. Russian influence will face a decline in media glorification and intelligence cooperation levels. However, the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance toward Moscow overnight. Serbia still relies on preferential gas prices and faces an unresolved dispute with Kosovo. Vuksanovic argued that Serbian interests can continue to be served through ties with Russia. The new government will not join EU sanctions or adopt a hardline position against Moscow. Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. A question mark hangs over ammunition deliveries to Ukraine, as the opposition viewed past sales as a cynical ploy. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, noted that ties with Israel will not be severed. Recent controversial agreements, including ammunition exports and surveillance equipment, will face scrutiny. Netanyahu's government has lost another authoritarian ally in Europe following Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary. The future stance in Belgrade will depend on political developments in Jerusalem. Jaksic stated that how Israel positions itself depends largely on the outcome of its own elections. The policy of sitting on multiple chairs will be re-evaluated, he suggested. It is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. Analysts agree that the international community should expect intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.
