Lula Draws Massive Copacabana Crowd Ahead of Sunday Vote

Tens of thousands of supporters of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva packed Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. The rally marked the final day of campaigning before a presidential runoff against far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday. Close to 159 million voters are eligible to participate in the decisive vote.

The candidates remain tied in polling data after Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47% of the vote, while Lula received 45%. Historical patterns show that no candidate who lost the first round has won the runoff since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s. A Lula victory would therefore break a long-standing electoral trend.

Crowds dressed in red filled the 2.5-mile stretch of beach in a procession under strong sun. Activists unfurled a large yellow and green banner that read, "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Truck driver Josias Silva, 61, carried a homemade sign predicting Lula’s re-election. He claimed the large street protests demonstrated that the people have woken up and predicted Lula would win more than 60% of the vote, a margin far larger than current polls suggest.

Most analysts view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite. He has positioned himself as a hardliner on violent crime, following his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who served from 2019 to 2022. However, Lula has climbed in the polls in recent days amid scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

The stakes extend beyond standard political competition for many voters. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democrats fear he could be freed or return to government if his son wins. Press reports indicate that several of his co-conspirators, currently jailed or in exile, could receive senior military and police posts. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, said her opposition targeted "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right as a whole, noting she lost four relatives due to neglect during the pandemic.

Many marchers belonged to "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members formed after the first round. Retired teacher Isabella Gaze, 64, described the contest as unlike any normal election. DJ and activist Cammy Marinho, 49, spent two weeks trying to persuade Bolsonaro voters and abstainers to switch sides. Fourteen-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva traveled from Duque de Caxias in his wheelchair to support the president.

Bolsonaro supporters also rallied in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. Thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow football jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the country's second-largest electorate and serves as a key bellwether, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying the state. Bolsonaro led there by just under 5% in the first round. Supporters defended his security message, with shooting club owner Antonio Carlos Costa Jr. arguing that his son would continue the policy of allowing citizens to defend themselves, a stance critics say diverted firearms to criminal gangs.