Midterm Vote Could Restrict Trump's Regional Leverage
A Democratic legislative win would tighten oversight on trade and foreign aid, forcing a recalibration of U.S. policy in Latin America.
By Kevin Iyer ·
The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday will determine how much freedom President Donald Trump retains to manage his administration's policies in Latin America. A shift in the balance of power in Congress could limit the executive branch's ability to pass legislation and control funding for regional initiatives.
Gabriel Clavijo, a political scientist and researcher at the Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, noted that the institutional room to advance reforms would shrink considerably if Democrats make gains. He explained that the margin of maneuver for implementing changes would become much more reduced under such a scenario.
The potential impact is sharpest in Cuba and Venezuela. The current administration has tightened pressure on Cuba through an oil embargo that has worsened power outages, alongside new sanctions targeting officials, state firms, and foreign investors. A federal arrest warrant for former President Raul Castro was also issued in Florida on October 19. While a Democratic majority would not automatically lift these sanctions, it would complicate the passage of new measures and increase scrutiny over Washington's approach.
In Venezuela, the relationship with the interim government led by Delcy Rodriguez remains pragmatic. Mariano de Alba, an internationalist, stated that the election result will not change who sets U.S. policy toward Venezuela, but it could alter the incentives for all actors involved. Caracas remains focused on securing the lifting of American sanctions.
Trade tensions with Mexico and Brazil also face a new dynamic. President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico is negotiating to reduce U.S. tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum while maintaining cooperation on migration and security. She is also managing the rivalry between the U.S. and China by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to support North American production. In Brazil, the relationship with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has deteriorated due to tariffs and the designation of two Brazilian drug trafficking groups as terrorist organizations.
The political landscape shifted recently after Lula defeated Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round of the Brazilian presidential election on October 25. Flavio Bolsonaro fled to the United States two days after the loss, where Trump welcomed him. Guilherme Amorim, a constitutional law professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Sao Paulo, suggested that Trump might need to be more discreet in his support for the Bolsonaro family if the midterms produce a Democratic advance.
Several governments have aligned closely with Trump through his Americas Shield initiative, including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and El Salvador. Argentina relies heavily on U.S. financial support, which in 2025 included a currency swap agreement worth up to 20 billion dollars and peso purchases to stabilize the exchange rate. A Democratic legislative presence could make it harder to approve future assistance mechanisms, a challenge for Javier Milei as he prepares for upcoming debt maturities.
El Salvador has become a key partner in U.S. migration policy by accepting the deportation of Venezuelan migrants to its megaprison. Bolivia, under President Rodrigo Paz, has resumed bilateral cooperation after years of distance. These alliances reflect a regional political shift to the right, where Trump has supported specific candidates and intervened publicly in several electoral processes.
