Midterm results allow Iran regime to outlast Trump administration
Democratic gains in Congress provide Tehran with new tools to stall US pressure on its nuclear program and military capabilities.
By Kevin Iyer ·
The Islamic regime in Iran killed more than 10,000 of its own citizens during protests in January 2026. Some estimates place the death toll in the tens of thousands. These figures underscore the cost of a strategy that prioritizes long-term survival over short-term economic relief or immediate nuclear concessions. The regime has chosen to endure internal pain and external pressure rather than agree to binding limits on its uranium enrichment.
This approach relies on a calculated patience that spans years and decades rather than weeks or months. Iran has not been able to newly enrich uranium since June 2025. Analysts estimate it could be a year or more before that capability returns, even if US pressure eases. The regime rejected the option of a three-year uranium freeze, a concession that would have cost it little in the long run. Instead, it retained the remnants of its nuclear program to avoid any long-term structural changes.
The US midterm election results on Tuesday changed the political dynamic in Washington. Democrats gained enough power to pressure President Donald Trump on the Iran file. They can now use investigations, appointment holds, and defense budget freezes to force the administration out of the conflict. This is a battle the president can postpone, but not necessarily win. The new congressional balance of power gives Tehran a diplomatic shield that did not exist in early 2026.
Voters in both parties showed fatigue with the war, specifically regarding its impact on gas prices. In states that Democrats almost never win, including Texas and South Carolina, the results reflected this souring of public opinion. Trump’s counter-blockade strategy outplayed Tehran in recent months, but the electoral shift complicates his next moves. He may opt for a weak deal to avoid losing Congress entirely, or he may be forced into one later. Even if he and Israel launch new attacks in the coming weeks, the regime is unlikely to be toppled in that timeframe.
The conflict has already reduced Iran’s overall military power and pushed back its ballistic missile program. However, the regime’s ability to absorb losses remains intact. It fought a losing war with Iraq for eight years in the 1980s until a ceasefire ended the fighting. Advisors who predicted that a four or six-week war would crack the regime underestimated this historical capacity for endurance. The regime does not prioritize the suffering of its people or the value of the rial currency in its decision-making.
Israel and the United States are now set to diverge on their approach to the Islamic Republic. Israel should focus on securing the best possible deal on the nuclear issue, a topic where US Democrats will be sensitive to appearing weak. Ballistic missiles matter less to the US administration. Israel must clearly define its redlines to both Trump and the incoming Democratic leadership. This clarity will mitigate damage to US relations if Iran breaks those lines in the future.
Israel could negotiate a secret agreement with Trump and Congressional Democrats. This deal would provide them with a window of two to four years to secure a follow-up deal with Iran before Israel decides to attack unilaterally. Such an arrangement would reduce opposition to a future Israeli strike if it becomes necessary. The Jewish state must simultaneously increase dialogue and coordination with US and European allies while remaining ready to act alone to ensure its survival.
