70,000 Returning Israelis May Decide Tight Knesset Election
Hotel occupancy data suggests a surge of arrivals from abroad, though analysts note the group lacks a unified political preference.
By Kevin Iyer ·
An estimated 70,000 Israelis living abroad have returned to the country or plan to arrive before Tuesday's Knesset elections. While no precise count exists, this influx could determine the winner if the race between political blocs is close.
Winning a single seat in the Knesset requires a specific number of votes. In 2022, approximately 36,000 votes were necessary to secure one seat. Analysts expect the threshold for this year's election to rise between 38,000 and 39,000 due to population growth and higher projected turnout.
The political alignment of these returning voters remains unclear. Estimates suggest many may support the change bloc, but no reliable data exists to confirm their preferences. Even if 60% of the returning Israelis vote for that bloc, the gain would amount to only one to one-and-a-half seats.
The influx is visible in the hospitality sector. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy during election week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, noted that many visitors are combining their trip with a short vacation. Fattal Hotels also saw higher bookings in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the chain's vice president of marketing and sales, attributed the rise to election-related travel and offered discounts of up to 30% for stays between October 25 and 29.
Many arrivals attended the October Council rally at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, a resident of Miami for over 50 years, said she is voting against the tendency of other Israelis in the US to support right-wing parties. Ofer, who traveled from New York, said his family will return the day after the vote. Zehava, also from New York, planned her trip specifically to vote for Likud.
Some travelers faced disruptions. flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack, leaving some Israelis stranded and facing higher prices to reach the Far East. Others who live in Israel but are abroad for work or leisure will miss the vote. Racheli, who is vacationing in Vietnam, said she had booked the trip nearly a year ago before the election date was set.
Her 18-year-old grandson, who arrived from Canada, is voting for the first time. His family from the South Sharon area attended the rally together. The final impact of these cross-border voters will be measured only after the ballots are counted on Tuesday.
